The scientific paper "Historical rainfall data in northern Italy predict larger meteorological drought hazard than climate projections" has been just published in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS). The article is open access.
The paper demonstrates that particular care has to be taken when informing decision makers on drought risk for the future. Actually, for the case of the Bologna region statistical approaches based on the stationarity assumptions deliver more precautionary estimates of drought risk than climate models.
Thank you for your interest.
Ciao,
Alberto
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